Green Shoots in the UK Economy and Markets?
There's been a lot of positive talk in the UK housing market over the last few days or so........Onward Christian Soldiers.....
Relaxation of the credit stanglehold?
Total net lending to individuals rose by £0.3 billion in October. The twelve-month growth rate fell to 0.7%, and the three-month annualised growth rate increased 0.3% to 0.5%, according to new figures from the Bank of England.
Money for New Mortgages?
The value of building society mortgage approvals in October was £1,511 million - broadly in line with the £1,565 million of approvals in September according to new figures from the Building Societies Association.
Gross lending also remained steady with £1,666 million being lent in October compared to £1,605 million in September.
Within the total, net lending secured on dwellings increased by £0.9 billion, in line with the September increase and above the previous six-month average of £0.6bn. The twelve-month growth rate was unchanged, at 0.8%. The three-month annualised growth rate increased 0.4 percentage points to 1.0%. Within total secured lending, secured lending by banks (excluding the effects of securitisations) increased by £3.1 billion, slightly below the September increase (£3.3bn) but above the six-month average of £2.6bn.
The number of loan approvals for house purchase (57,345) was above the September figure (56,205) and above the previous six-month average, whereas approvals for remortgaging (24,596) were below both the September figure and the previous six-month average.The number of loans approved for other purposes (29,195) was higher than in September and higher than the previous six-month average.
Credit Cards - Britains 'Secret' loan sharks!
Consumer credit fell by a net £0.6 billion, below the previous six month average of -£0.1bn. Credit card lending increased by £0.1 billion and other loans and advances fell by £0.7 billion. The annual growth rate of consumer credit continued to fall, to -0.1%; the three-month annualised growth rate fell to -2.2%.
Housing Market still in Cheyne-Stokes
House prices grew by 0.2% in November according to the latest national house price survey published by Hometrack, the housing intelligence business - the fourth consecutive increase in prices, bringing the year on year rate of house price growth to -2.9%.
Commenting on this month's survey, Richard Donnell, Director of Research said:
“There are three distinct elements to the latest results from this and other recent surveys. This first is that prices continue to post month on month increases. The second is the extent of prices rises across the country and the number of households who have seen an improvement in market conditions over 2009. The third, and most important element, is the short term outlook for prices.”
“This is the third consecutive month that the survey has posted a 0.2% price rise. Add to this a growth in sales volumes and it is easy to see how agents are beginning to feel more confident about sustainable pricing levels - at least in the short term. But this pick up in market activity and prices is not one that has been felt across the whole country. The stark reality is that there are large swathes of the country where prices have remained unchanged or have seen continued price falls.”
Over the last 6 months London and the South East have consistently seen the largest number of postcodes registering price rises - values are up across 78% of London and over half of the South East. Yet in five regions less than 20% of the market has registered any price rise.
Personally I see nothing in these indicators to warrant any change of course by the Bank of England regarding Interest Rates.
It is quite clear however that the money invested by the British people into the Quantitive Easing 'project' is clearly designed to line the pockets of those within the system where the money will not 'trickle down' into the general money supply.
The credit strangulation of SME's and individuals is as bad as ever!
Labels: Business, Consumer Credit Law, credit cards, credit crunch, Debt, Economy, House prices, housing market, money supply, Money System, pump priming, Quantitative Easing, UK government
UK Commercial Insurance Sector Set To Recover
With the UK in the deepest recession since records began in the 1950's, it is hardly surprising that the
Commercial Insurance Sector has seen it's customer base shrinking faster than the Royal Mail says it is losing hand written letters, and one would have thought that the beleaguered
business insurance sector would have little to look forward too in the new year....
However, things are not always what they seem and as Kris Oldland reports, there appears to be green shoots of recovery for the spring........
SME Commercial Insurance Sector sees promise in 2010
After a year which has been tricky for some and catastrophic for others we could be forgiven for looking towards 2010 with some trepidation and in some of the more morose corners of industry dare we say it, a heavy dose of doom and gloom? Well those hardy soles in the ever exciting SME market are having none of it – despite the sector being hit harder by the recession than most.
At least that is what the results of a recent report from British communication giant BT would seem to suggest.
The 2009 BT Pulse report has revealed that an overwhelming three quarters of SME’s predict the economy will see an upturn in 2010. Further to this over 60% of the respondents were confident about their businesses prospects for the coming year and an impressively confident 35% even predicted their situation will have improved as soon as January 2010.
The report surveyed 7,200 Directors of small and medium sized enterprises and a strategy director at BT commented that the findings “show that the economy is at a tipping point. Despite the obvious knock to confidence, positivity about when the upturn will come is encouraging.”
With 45% of the respondents going as far as saying that they have streamlined their business so that they are now operating even better as a result of the downturn, it seems that many of these SME operators are primed to thrive as soon as the market catches them up.
These bold predictions have also been echoed by the Institute for Chartered Accountants in England and Wales (ICAEW), who have also recently released a similar statement that “confidence among business professionals has turned positive for the first time in two years.”
However not all quarters of the UK industry are predicting quite such a swift return to the good times as the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) has issued a slightly more ominous statement that although the recovery may have started, the economy still faces considerable risk.
According to the organisation, GDP will drop by 4.3 per cent this year, followed by growth of 1.1 per cent in 2010 – an improvement on the BCC’s June prediction of 0.6 per cent.
David Kern, chief economist at the BCC, says: ‘While we expect a gradual improvement over the next two years, the pace of UK expansion is likely to be weak by pre-recession standards. It is critical that wealth-creating businesses have adequate capacity to respond to an upturn in demand when the recovery strengthens.’
However despite the general confidence, many SME’s are still walking a dangerous tightrope leaving themselves unnecessarily open to adverse risk as they cut their policies and leave themselves underinsured.
Of course should these buoyant entrepreneurial companies live up to the high expectations they are piling upon themselves then it follows that their insurance needs will grow too and with the aid of a good broker they may just be able to manage the balancing act of ensuring that their cover is adequate and competitively priced.
With the SME sector looking once again to rise like a phoenix from the ashes the role of the high street commercial insurance brokers could once again become a crucial link between the sector and the general insurance industry.
About the Author:Kris Oldland is an Insurance Journalist with particular interest in Commercial Insurance and UK business Insurance
Article Source: ArticlesBase.com - SME Commercial Insurance Sector sees promise in 2010
Labels: business insurance, commercial insurance, commercial risks, credit crunch, Economy, recession
Norwich Union is Dead! Arriva Aviva!
The grand old lady from carrot crunching country just couldn't cut the mustard with the bosses of the Iberian sounding Aviva and will officially be given the fatal injection at midnight tonight.
As an ex-employee of GA bonus (New Zealand Insurance) do I care?
At the time of the merger / takeover Insuranceblogger had already moved on to pastures new in the city, but I had left them over thirty commercial products on their brand new AS/400 and at the time it was annoying to see the Misers from Perth (GA) and the Wastrels from Whyteleafe (CU) surrender to the much weaker brand.
What a waste of money rebranding is - shareholders must be outraged, mind you they are all at it! The necessary systems centralisation cost which has already happened obviously needs a centralised culture under the same banner - A banner for job and branch streamlining.
I thought Santander was a port in the basque country!
Labels: AVIVA, Economy, Insurance, Insurance companies, insurance marketing, insurance news, mergers, norwich union, unemployment
Recession latest - Cracks appear as Barrack Brown tonic bites
Now Insurance Blogger always keeps a sceptic eye on things while the other one is open to all sorts of suggestion. Combine them both and you've got a third eye that can come to some sort of rational analysis of whatever the problem or situation is.
So what is really going on in the Economy?
And in particular in the UK Economy?
Are the cracks in the recession that are staring to appear around the globe genuine?
If so and to what amount of the recent Obama and Brown pump priming can we really attribute to the effect?
Moreover is it a tangible upswing in the Global Economy and genuine growth or are the latest figures just smoking mirrors, conveniently released PR for a week either side of the G (how many are there now) Lockdown London Economic crisis Summit.
OK so whats been happening?
The Zeitgeist seems prety upbeat with some recent strategically announced PR from some of the major UK Government owned Banking and Insurance institutions suggesting, that the downward spiral of deflationary pressures has finally bottomed out. Hmmm!
We need to examine some of these releases chronologically to see behind the mirrors!
Two weeks ago - late at night our time, CBS News New York post stories and report that the Obama insistence that the US financial institutions release bale-out capital for mortgages and housing is beginning to have some effect with construction projects starting up and the demand for houses and prices starting to rise.
Halifax - A week ago announcing UK housing prices are moving upward.
Today - Council of Mortgage lenders announce that there are more mortgage schemes available now and the number of live mortgage schemes has increased for the first time in eight months.
Hmm!
Insurance blogger is pleased but cautiously concerned!
Is this just cheesy Blair style PR that we are all supposed to buy into to go around saying how good life is at the moment and dip into our overdrawn accounts and start spending some more?
Well, until the restricted flow of the money supply starts to drip down to the masses and to those holding the system up with debt, one cannot possibly start to argue that the recent so callled 'fiscal measures' are having any effect at all other than to allow the banks to continue operating.
Until the lower level debt is released or absorbed into the reinflation that will eventually occur, there will be no stimulus to demand and pump priming will become just pumping - lets hope its enough to keep us all afloat!
On a global front there have been casualties everywhere - The Ukranian Government has had to go crawling back to its old masters in the Kremlin after its Banking system and Economy collapsed and the IMF and the West refused to bail it out!
Russia itself is beginning to melt. The frosty cold war like demands of recent years and the noises coming out of the renegade capitalist government there, have softened to the broad smile of the Obama machine. Where is Georgia anyway?
Has the Bear finally realised that all its efforts to undermine the Anglo-Saxon banking system has backfired and shot them in the foot. If you can't beat them - join them!
Likewise China, it may well have the largest bank in the world in the HSBC, but if it continues to squeeze and mess with our markets ( The Chinese Government is actively engaged in Cyberwars!), it is the Chinese people that will suffer in the long term, as we will not buy their products, not through protectionism, but through the inability to afford them.
Everybody is running scared of protectionism as it is well known that it was this mentality that depepened the 1930's global shutdown.
Everybody must come to the table!
Labels: Barack Obama, credit crunch, Economy, Gordon Brown
